FORECASTING CAPABILITY AREA
The EUMETNET Forecasting Capability Area aims at the support of the weather forecasting processes of its members, the national weather offices in Europe. In six separate projects we cooperate to enhance several aspects of the forecasting process: coordination of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) consortia, nowcasting and very short range forecasting in which the forecaster plays a central role, issuing weather and hydrological warnings (www.meteoalarm.eu ), training the forecaster (http://www.eumetcal.org/courses/ ). To optimize the results we are in close contact with the Heads of Forecasting of the national offices and with the Working Group on Cooperation of European Forecasters which is the main forum of operational weather forecasters in Europe.
FORECASTING – SCOPE & PURPOSE
The long term strategic goals of EUMETNET’s Forecasting Programme as derived from EUMETNET’s strategy as valid at the Programme start in 2013 read as follows:
• EUMETNET will support Members in ensuring that they always have highly skilled forecasters through shared training and shared best practice.
• EUMETNET will assist Members and their modelling consortia to develop their forecast models and processes in order to produce the best possible short term forecasts for their clients.
• EUMETNET will have facilitated, through a strategic discussion among Members, the identification and initiation of projects for collaboration, harmonisation and coordination in support of more efficient forecasting systems, and improved regional and short range weather forecasts.
Goal 1 is being achieved by keeping abreast of Member’s training&education (E&T) needs with respect to forecasting tasks and develop the appropriate E&T facilities by further developing the Eumetcal Project and by the exchange of knowledge within and among the various EUMETNET Projects by organizing conferences, workhops and other meetings and by liaising with external Forecasting bodies (ECMWF, WMO, EMS, WGCEF etc.).
Goal 2 is being achieved by supporting the existing Short Range Numerical Weather Prediction Consortia to exchange knowledge and collaborate where possible and efficient within the C-SRNWP Project. Members will benefit through the consortia in which they participate.
Goal 3 is being achieved by initiating new Projects in fields where collaboration is assessed to be efficient and beneficial for Members. On-going Services like MeteoAlarm are being continued in EMMA and extended to hydrology in EMMA-H. New Projects are planned for probabilistic forecasting using EPS in SRNWP EPS and for Nowcasting.
General principles and common goals within the Forecasting Programme have been identified as key priorities:
– building upon past investment;
– nowcasting: organizing activities like Nowcasting Symposium or workshops;
– improved communications with users and understanding of their requirements: a meeting of the Heads of Forecasting of all EUMETNET Members is organized yearly;
– meteorological services supporting protection of life and properties;
– integrated Programme Management;
– sharing of experiences and expertise in SRNWP EPS for improving coordination and assessing integration
Important milestones within the Forecasting Programme included:
– delivery of Feasibility Study and Proposals on SRNWP EPS, June 2014, accomplished
– delivery of Feasibility Study and Proposals on Nowcasting, June 2014, accomplished
– midterm review, mid 2015: only accomplished for the Projects Eumetcal and EMMA
The overall objectives of the Forecasting Programme for the current programme phase (2013-2018) are:
– consistent coordination among all forecasting capability area programmes and with responsible managers of other relevant EUMETNET Programmes (e.g. EUCOS) and liaison with all European NWP consortia
– investigation for updating user requirements on NWP and overviewing nowcasting coordination in respect both to communication with users and as a cross-cutting topic
The objectives for the Projects are summarized under each Project separately.
The current phase of the Programme started in January 2013 and will last, with an extension of one year, until the end of 2018. The Coordinating Member is Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and the Programme Manager is Dick Blaauboer.
The organizational overview above presents the Forecasting Programme and its six Projects. The Programme Manager reports to the EUMETNET Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee, STAC. The STAC has two Working Groups in the Forecasting domain:
– Working Group on Education & Training, WGET, Chair Heleen ter Pelkwijk (KNMI):
This Working Group advises STAC on Education&Training issues relevant for the EUMETNET Members including the scope and functioning of Eumetcal, EUMETNET’s own Project for E&T. In this sense it has a function of steering group for Eumetcal. It also advises on the future strategy for E&T.
– Working Group on Cooperation of European Forecasters, WGCEF, Chair Christian Csekits (ZAMG)
This Working Group has been established in 1995 as a Working Group for European forecasters. Since October 2013 it has been agreed that the Working Group would operate as a EUMETNET STAC Working Group by including an advisory role to STAC in forecasting issues next to its original goals as European forecasters group. More information on WGCEF can be found here.
Within the Working Group a Task Team is active working on a procedure to harmonize the naming of storms over Europe. Currently several independent services to name storms are active which is confusing for the public and the media. Storm names turn out to be very important in reporting on storms in the (social) media.
Within the Forecasting Programme several Expert Teams are active. They serve as an expert group advising the Project/Programme Manager. The Expert Team Forecasting advises the FPM. Members are the other Project Managers within the Forecasting Programme plus six Members from the group of Heads of Forecasting. The Chair is Nuno Moreira (IPMA) and the Vice-Chair is Goran Mihajlovic (RHMSS). Other Expert Teams are described on their relevant pages of the website.
In order to tune the programme activities as much as possible to (changing) requirements from the national weather services a yearly meetings with the Heads of Forecasting of the 31 members of EUMETNET are conducted. This is a major opportunity for feedback in both directions.
OPERA Data production
During the previous OPERA phase (2019-2023), the data centre (ODYSSEY) was gradually replaced with three new production lines (CUMULUS/STRATUS CIRRUS, and NIMBUS).
New production lines
• CUMULUS/STRATUS, a real-time data hub providing the incoming data back to members in approximately real-time for their own processing (e.g. regional composites or NWP assimilation) and to the other two production lines (CIRRUS and NIMBUS). The production line has been operational since Q2/2021.
• CIRRUS producing 5-minute instantaneous maximum reflectivity composite (dBZ) for current weather, severe weather alerts and aviation needs. It is replacing the ODYSSEY maximum reflectivity composite with improved spatial (now with 1 km gridding) and temporal resolution (from 15 – minutes to 5- minutes). The production has been operational since Q1/2024. Documentation regarding the CIRRUS maximum reflectivity product and its differences compared to the ODYSSEY maximum reflectivity product can be found here.
OPERA_Max Reflectivity_Product Sheet_Ed-2.0.pdf
OPERA5_Report_Cirrus-vs-Odyssey_Ed-2.0.pdf
• NIMBUS produces centrally the quality-controlled products; instantaneous rain rate (mm/h) and 1 – hour accumulation (mm) composites, and wind profiles (TBD Q4/2024), and additionally the quality-controlled volume data for NWP assimilation. It replaces the ODYSSEY production for the above-mentioned products. The NIMBUS production has been operational since Q2/2024. Documentation regarding the NIMBUS composites and their differences compared to the corresponding ODYSSEY can be found here:
NIMBUS_datasheet_composites_1.0_13062024.pdf
NIMBUS_composite_vs_ODYSSEY_1.0_19062024.pdf
OPERA support can be reached through email to support.opera[at]eumetnet.eu. Responses from the service desk are provided on a best-effort basis.
Access to data
The members of OPERA and EUMETNET may use the composites for their official duties without a separate license. The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modelers obtain the quality-controlled volume data directly from the NIMBUS production line.
The OPERA products are also available under license to 3rd parties:
For national weather services not participating in OPERA which want to use the products to support their public weather service, contact info[at]eumetnet.eu
For a research and education licence, contact info[at]eumetnet.eu.
For a license to exploit the products commercially, contact one of the EUMETNET members contact points (https://www.ecomet.eu/contact/members) or send an email to eumetdaps_secretariat[at]eumetnet.eu.
EUMETNET AMDAR coverage
The coverage for the EUMETNET AMDAR network for a typical day is shown on the map below. Yellow plots indicate observations taken enroute with red and green plots representing aircraft ascent and descent profiles.
During the previous OPERA phase (2019-2023), the data centre (ODYSSEY) was gradually replaced with three new production lines (CUMULUS/STRATUS CIRRUS, and NIMBUS).
Figure: The schematic structure of the new OPERA data production.
The three new production lines are:
• CUMULUS/STRATUS, a real-time data hub providing the incoming data back to members in approximately real-time for their own processing (e.g. regional composites or NWP assimilation) and to the other two production lines (CIRRUS and NIMBUS). The production line has been operational since Q2/2021.
• CIRRUS producing 5-minute instantaneous maximum reflectivity composite (dBZ) for current weather, severe weather alerts and aviation needs. It is replacing the ODYSSEY maximum reflectivity composite with improved spatial (now with 1 km gridding) and temporal resolution (from 15 – minutes to 5- minutes). The production has been operational in Q1/2024. Documentation regarding the CIRRUS maximum reflectivity product and its differences compared to the ODYSSEY maximum reflectivity product can be found here.
– OPERA_Max Reflectivity_Product Sheet_Ed-2.0.pdf
– OPERA5_Report_Cirrus-vs-Odyssey_Ed-2.0.pdf
• NIMBUS producing centrally the quality-controlled products; instantaneous rain rate (mm/h) and 1 – hour accumulation (mm) composites, and wind profiles (TBD Q4/2024), and additionally the quality-controlled volume data for NWP assimilation. It is replacing the ODYSSEY production for the above-mentioned products. The NIMBUS production has been operational in Q2/2024. Documentation regarding the NIMBUS composites and their differences compared to the corresponding ODYSSEY can be found here:
– NIMBUS_datasheet_composites_1.0_13062024.pdf
– NIMBUS_composite_vs_ODYSSEY_1.0_19062024.pdf
OPERA support can be reached through email to support.opera@emetnet.com. Responses from the service desk are provided on a best-effort basis.
Access to data
The members of OPERA and EUMETNET may use the composites for their official duties without a separate license. The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modelers obtain the quality-controlled volume data directly from NIMBUS production line.
The OPERA products are also available under license to 3rd parties:
· For national weather services not participating in OPERA which want to use the products to support their public weather service, contact info@emetnet.com
· For a research and education licence, contact info@emetnet.com.
· For a license to exploit the products commercially, contact one of the EUMETNET members contact points(https://www.ecomet.eu/contact/members) or send a mail eumetdaps_secretariat@emetnet.com.