EPS II

Objectives

The main aim of the Project is to contribute to build very high-resolution ensemble systems in Europe, resolving the convection-permitting scale phenomena.

The main objectives are to:

A. Develop new products and methodologies for calibration of LAM ensembles for extremes and probabilistic prediction of thunderstorms and fog:

1) Inventory of existing methods and SW already developed by the Members and literature review;

2) Define and develop new products and methodologies for computation/elaboration:

· calibration of ensembles, mainly for extremes (wind, precipitation, temperature,…);

· products for probabilistic prediction of thunderstorms (clear benefit, link with research, link with EMMA), fog.

B. Understanding the sensitivity of ensemble prediction systems to soil conditions and PBL and their effect on the prediction of selected phenomena (fog and thunderstorms)

1)      Investigating sensitivity of models to soil moisture and PBL;

2) Investigating the ratio of sensitivity to different sources of surface and upper air uncertainty at the CP scale.

The tasks

The project workload is divided into several work packages and then into tasks.

The complete list of tasks can be found here.

The requirements

The content of the requirements for the EUMETNET SRNWP-EPS Phase II (EPS-II) has a main aim: to contribute to build very high-resolution ensemble systems in Europe, resolving the convection-permitting scale phenomena. To reach this aim, the usual coordination within C-SRNWP was not enough, since dedicated meetings should be organized, where status and plans of the participants are revised and where an agreement on the ground for cooperation should be found.

The main open issues for scientific research on this subject are outlined and described in the document: “Explore the scientific methodologies suitable to build a very high-resolution ensemble” which is the Delivery 3 of the Phase I SRNWP-EPS Activity; the document was prepared by the Expert Team on EPS of the EUMETNET C-SRNWP Program. The aim of this document is to provide scientific and methodological basis for planning future work on the field; it includes a scope of topics larger than those covered by the phase II requirements. 

These requirements will help to identify few tasks which can be accomplished within a limited amount of time and with a dedicated amount of resources, leading to clear and tangible outcomes such as coexistence of both operational and (focused) research activities, in order to satisfy the different needs of the NMSs. Therefore, the topics which have been identified for this Phase II requirements focus on all-the-steps-towards-the-development of a methodology for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather phenomena (e.g. thunderstorms and fog), relevant for the operational duties of the NMSs.

The organisation

The Project currently has 21 Member NMSs participating. The complete list of participating Members can be found here.

The Project is coordinated by the Project Manager (PM) with the help of the Scientific Coordinator, to ensure a proper coordination between the Application and the Research Tasks, and the National coordinator for Italy, to ensure internal coordination between USAM/CNMCA and ARPA-SIMC.  The main advisory body is the Expert Team (ET)[1]. All together are responsible for overviewing the progress in the WP’s.

The main duties of the Project Manager are:

·       Ensure development of the Project and the fulfilment of all Deliverables and Milestones

·       Coordination with the Scientific Coordinator to guarantee the proper coordination between Application and Research Tasks

·       Reporting to and coordinating with EUMETNET STAC and Secretariat and the FPM (Forecasting Project Manager).

·       Liaising with C-SRNWP and other EUMETNET Programs.

·       Liaising with Programmes beyond EU such as WMO WG for Ensemble Prediction System and TIGGE-LAM

·       Supervising the organization of the meetings and liaising with the personnel working in the project to ensure smooth development

·       Participating in all the meetings and WebEx conferences organized in the framework of the Project, EUMETNET core team meeting and some of the FP meeting.

·       Coordination with the Eumetcal Project in order to organize possible calls from Eumetcal for participation in training activities about probabilistic forecast and ensemble prediction systems.

·       Coordination with SESAR project to exchange experiences in the field of use of probabilistic forecasts for Aviation and Airport activities.

The main duties of the Scientific Coordinator are:

·       Ensure that the Project follows the state-of-the-art of Ensemble Prediction System and probabilistic forecast

·       Supervising the scientific goals and methodologies of the Project Tasks

·       Coordinate with the personnel involved in the Application and Research Tasks

·       Reviewing the Deliverables of the Projects

·       Coordinate with the C-SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS

·       Liaising with ECWMF Research Department, WMO WG for Ensemble Prediction System, TIGGE-LAM

·       Help in supervising the organization of the meetings and liaising with project teams to ensure smooth development

·       Participating in all the meetings and WebEx conferences organized in the framework of the Project

The main duties of the National coordinator for Italy are:

·       Ensure internal coordination between USAM/CNMCA and ARPA-SIMC

·       Coordination with other Italian institution interested in probabilistic weather forecast

The main duties of the Expert Team are:

·       Informing the Project Manager about strategic developments in Europe in the field of Ensemble Prediction System and probabilistic forecast.

·       Attending the Expert Team meetings and delivering relevant information and documents required for the elaboration and completion of the deliverables of the Project.

The ET will be formed by one representative for each participating NMS, which will act as contact point between the coordinators and the NMSs. The C-SRNWP ET-EPS will be contacted to advice the project acting as part of the Expert Team on a voluntary basis for NMSs which are not participating in the project. Communication between the ET members will be guaranteed through an annual meeting (organized through the planned workshops and conferences) and additional WebEx Meetings where necessary. Reports of the meetings will be circulated to members.

The main duties of the participating NMSs are:

·       Nominate a contact point as a member of the Expert Team

·       Providing in-kind contribution for the Research Tasks

·       Providing in-kind contribution by attending meetings and delivering relevant information and documents required for the elaboration and completion of the deliverables of the Project

·       Supply members for the User Group among the National Institutions interested in use of probabilistic information for weather forecasting

A User Group (UG) will be formed including representatives of National Institutions, interested in use of probabilistic information for weather forecasting. A special called for the Energy Sector in Europe will be made to include representatives of that sector in the Users’ Group on a voluntary basis. A link with SESAR will also be established to ensure proper coordination, also aiming at feed-backs from the aviation sector. Also ECOMET will invite to the UG to properly represent the private sector. Communication with the User Group will be guaranteed, if the budget allows, through one dedicated face-to-face meeting and email list. Reports of the meeting will be circulated to members.